The Politics of Joe Six-Pack

Brian Frederking

May 24, 2006

            One fascinating aspect of US politics is that we have a two-party system with four different kinds of citizens. Two groups – liberals and conservatives – have natural homes in the Democratic and Republican Party. But the other two groups – populists and libertarians – must make the difficult choice between the parties.

            Our political beliefs are based on prioritizing goals in both economic and social policy. In economic policy we must choose between protecting individual property rights and maintaining a minimum standard of living for all. We cannot do both. For example, we cannot achieve a universal health insurance program without raising taxes and redistributing wealth.

            In social policy we must choose between individual rights to privacy and maintaining order. We must either continue domestic spying programs or not. We must either recognize gay marriages or not. We must either limit or protect abortion rights.

            These are all reasonable goals: liberty and equality in the economic sphere, and privacy and order in the social sphere. But they are in tension with one another. Liberty in the economic sphere requires limited government, while equality requires extensive government. Privacy in the social sphere requires limited government, while order requires extensive government.

The four possible combinations of preferences constitute the four arguments in US politics. Conservatives prefer liberty in the economic sphere and order in the social sphere. Liberals prefer the opposite: equality in the economic sphere and privacy in the social sphere.

Note that whether there should be limited or extensive government depends on the issue for conservatives and liberals. Conservatives want limited government in economic policy and extensive government in social policy. Liberals want limited government in social policy and extensive government in economic policy. As I crudely put it in my classes, liberals want to regulate the boardroom, and conservatives want to regulate the bedroom.

            But there are two other combinations of preferences. Libertarians prefer liberty in the economic sphere and privacy in the social sphere. They consistently prefer individual rights and limited government, regardless of the issue. Populists prefer equality in the economic sphere and order in the social sphere. They consistently prefer government regulation of both the market and our private lives.

            The demographics of these two groups are also important. Of the four groups, libertarians are the smallest but also the wealthiest. And populists are the largest but also the poorest. 

So every four years wealthy libertarians and working class populists must choose between the two parties. Libertarians might vote for Republicans because they want their taxes cut, but they might also vote for Democrats because they are pro-choice on abortion. Populists might vote for Republicans because they are pro-life on abortion, but they might vote for Democrats because they fear for their economic security.

The populists are the key swing vote in US politics, and “Joe Six-Pack” is the quintessential populist: white, working-class, often Southern, males. Joe is socially conservative: for the death penalty and gun rights and against affirmative action, gay rights and abortion rights. Joe supports the police and the military. He culturally feels more at home in the Republican Party.

But Joe’s economic interests are with the Democratic Party. He is worried about his job being sent overseas, how he will send his kids to school, and the rising cost of health care. He is worried about his declining standard of living and realizes that Republican economic policies help corporations more than workers.

            So how does Joe Six-Pack vote? Does he vote on the basis of his checkbook or his social conscious? Does he identify with the dominant cultural group of white Protestants? Or does he identify with the interests of the working poor?

            The answer to this question has decided US presidential elections since the 1960s. Working class whites were solidly part of the New Deal coalition that brought Democrats to majority party status after the Great Depression. Since 1968, however, Democrats have only won the presidency when they have appealed to Joe Six Pack by nominating Southern governors: Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. (And Al Gore, from Tennessee, won a majority of the popular vote in 2000.) When the Democrats nominate a northern liberal (McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry) they lose.

Whoever appeals to Joe Six Pack wins elections. Can the Republicans get Joe Six Pack to emphasize social issues, law and order, and the war on terrorism? Or can the Democrats get Joe Six Pack to emphasize jobs, education, and health care? The party that can turn the campaign into a discussion of the issues that appeal to Joe Six Pack will win in 2006 and 2008.