Bush Foreign Policy Crumbling

            The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is another illustration that the simplistic assumptions of US foreign policy do not match the complexities of Middle East politics.

            1) Democratic institutions will help root out terrorism. The promotion of democracy in the Middle East became the central rationale for the war in Iraq and thus US foreign policy in the region when we found no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. We assert that “democracy” and “terrorism” are polar opposites, so movement toward one must be movement away from the other.

US policy is to turn Iraq into a democracy and watch the dominoes fall as the region embraces Western notions of freedom. But the opposite has happened. US standing in the region is so low since the invasion of Iraq that anyone considered pro-Western cannot win an election.

All recent elections have strengthened radical Islamist movements. Hamas won the recent Palestinian elections, ending any slim hopes of a resurrected Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Recent Iranian elections replaced the moderate reformer Khatami with the radical Ahmadinejad, who has now unleashed Hezbollah on Israel and is bent on building nuclear weapons. Local elections in Egypt, the only ones our dictatorial allies will allow, brought victories to parties associated with the radical Muslim Brotherhood.

And then there is Lebanon. Recent popular movements forced Syrian troops out of the country, and the West was hopeful that the fledgling Lebanese government would be a pivotal transition toward democratic governance. But a Lebanon on the road to democracy has not rooted out terrorism. Hezbollah is still there, with a stronger military capability and a greater legitimacy among Lebanese Shia than the government.  

2) You are either with us or you are with the terrorists. This black and white view of the world also does not fit the Middle East. Many countries – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, etc. – are “with us” in the war on terrorism while also supporting groups that the US considers terrorist. These countries are attempting to balance friendly relations with the US with the need to pacify the radical Islamists in their own country. This balancing act is very difficult because friendly relations with the US helps fuel the radical movements. We should remember that the 9/11 terrorists were mostly from Saudi Arabia and Egypt, two US allies, not Iran, Iraq, or Syria.

And then there is Lebanon. Is the Lebanese government “with us” because it is attempting democratic government? Or is it “against us” because it has done little to get rid of Hezbollah? Is it “with us” because it wants to reduce Syrian influence in the region? Or is it “against us” because the Israeli invasion is now forcing it to fight side by side with Hezbollah? Our simple categories do not fit the complexities of the region.

Even worse, they are counter-productive. The current conflict illustrates that when US and/or Israeli policy become aggressive, regular people will side with “them” rather than “us.” Iranians voted for the radicals in part because the US continued its hostile containment policies rather than the open engagement sought by the reformer Khatami. Palestinians voted for Hamas in part because the US is not even-handed in the peace process. And now, ironically enough, the Israeli invasion has forced the Lebanese government to fight with Hezbollah against a common enemy.

The US is in a box regarding this current crisis. Since Israel is doing exactly what the US has claimed the right to do – invade another country to go after terrorists – the US cannot press for a ceasefire. But Israel has invaded a fledgling democracy, not an ‘axis of evil’ member, and so we urge them to show restraint in order not to undermine the current Lebanese government. This reaction exposes the contradictions of US policy: regime change is not the policy toward all states who allow terrorists within their borders.

Not that regime change has been working. The Taliban is still alive and kicking in Afghanistan. Iraq is in the middle of a sectarian civil war. And now Israel has invaded one of the few countries in the region that the US could brag about being on the road to democracy. The pictures of US citizens being evacuated from Lebanon should make us think about whether US policies are protecting or endangering us.